We have issued the first 2022 Russia’s wheat crop forecast. At this stage, we estimate it at 80.7 mmt of wheat compared to 75.5 mmt in 2021. The production is expected to rebound on a good weather setup for winter wheat. Russia is the #1 global wheat exporter.
Total 2022 wheat area is estimated at 28.7 mln ha, unchanged year on year. However, the area of more productive winter wheat is forecasted to increase thanks to a substantially lower winter-kill rate compared to 2021. The area of spring wheat could decline thanks to the export tax forcing farmers to switch to other crops or fallow and smaller reseeding after the winter.
Moisture reserves currently are above average or close to average in the South and the Center, #1 and #2 wheat regions. Farmers in these regions, surveyed by SovEcon, estimate crops conditions above average. Recent rains also improved reserves in the Volga Valley (#3).
The yields of winter and spring wheat are estimated slightly below the trend. We attribute this to the expected savings on ag inputs, primarily on fertilisers. It can partly be offset by the good condition of winter crops.
SovEcon’s forecast for the current year is 75.5 mmt, in 2020 Russia harvested 85.9 mmt. USDA estimates 2021 Russian wheat crop at 72.5 mmt (ex.Crimea which is to produce 0.9 mmt as per SovEcon’s assessment).
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