SovEcon expects Russia to increase wheat production by 5.2 mmt in 2022

The production is expected to rebound on a good weather setup for winter wheat.

We have issued the first 2022 Russia’s wheat crop forecast. At this stage, we estimate it at 80.7 mmt of wheat compared to 75.5 mmt in 2021. The production is expected to rebound on a good weather setup for winter wheat. Russia is the #1 global wheat exporter.

Total 2022 wheat area is estimated at 28.7 mln ha, unchanged year on year. However, the area of more productive winter wheat is forecasted to increase thanks to a substantially lower winter-kill rate compared to 2021. The area of spring wheat could decline thanks to the export tax forcing farmers to switch to other crops or fallow and smaller reseeding after the winter.

Moisture reserves currently are above average or close to average in the South and the Center, #1 and #2 wheat regions. Farmers in these regions, surveyed by SovEcon, estimate crops conditions above average. Recent rains also improved reserves in the Volga Valley (#3).

The yields of winter and spring wheat are estimated slightly below the trend. We attribute this to the expected savings on ag inputs, primarily on fertilisers. It can partly be offset by the good condition of winter crops.

SovEcon’s forecast for the current year is 75.5 mmt, in 2020 Russia harvested 85.9 mmt. USDA estimates 2021 Russian wheat crop at 72.5 mmt (ex.Crimea which is to produce 0.9 mmt as per SovEcon’s assessment).

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Russian wheat exports in November drop to season low – SovEcon

Wheat sales slowed due to stormy weather in the Black Sea.

Russian wheat crop to drop in 2024 – SovEcon

The yield in 2024 is expected to move lower on expected average 2024 crop conditions and decline in agriculture inputs application.

SovEcon: Russian wheat market bottomed out

After three months of decline, the market is bottoming out amid increasing demand and shrinking supply.

SovEcon: Russian grain market to bottom out in coming weeks

Russian wheat prices may reverse after a three-month decline amid higher demand and lower supply.

SovEcon cut Russian wheat export forecast for the first time this season

The estimate was revised amid sluggish wheat sales and anticipated purchases for the intervention fund.