Large traders’ outstanding sales of Russian wheat have declined to 1.7 million metric tons (MMT) as of April 25th from 2.4 MMT a month earlier, according to data from the National Commodity Exchange (NCE) processed by SovEcon. This marks the lowest volume since November 2022. The sales are declining amid the lower competitiveness of the Russian wheat.
Russian wheat’s competitiveness has weakened compared to European grain. On April 24th, it was sold for $6 more than French wheat, while a month earlier it was $2 cheaper.
This decline in exports may be attributed to the reluctance of Russian exporters to sell wheat below $275 FOB. According to news agencies, the Agriculture Ministry of Russia recommended that exporters not sell wheat cheaper than this number. During a tender by the Egyptian company GASC, Russia sold 0.6 MMT of wheat for no less than $275 FOB.
SovEcon has estimated that Russian wheat exports in April would amount to 4.2 MMT, down from 4.5 MMT a month earlier, due to lower demand from exporters.
Sluggish Russian wheat export sales could lead to the revision of 2022/23 export forecast and provide some support to global prices.
A wheat sales reporting system was implemented in 2021 to determine weekly floating tax rates on grain exports. Traders are required to provide information on their transactions to the NCE, which is used to calculate the export tax and indicative price.
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