Russian wheat yields are growing

Growing yields are the key driver behind the increase of production of wheat in Russia.

Growing yields are the key driver behind the increase of production of wheat in Russia. From 2009 to 2018 they increased by around 20%, to 2.7 mt/ha of the planted area. During this period the area was more or less stable, in 25-28 mln ha range. In 2017 thanks to almost ideal weather yields hit a new record high of 3.1 mt/ha and the country harvested a record crop of 86 mln mt (85.2 mln mt ex. Crimea).

To put this in perspective, the US harvests around 3-3.5 mt/ha and EU – 5-6 mt/ha on average.

Russian yields grow thanks to better agrotechnology (better crop protections, machinery, and seeds) and growing share of winter wheat which typically has significantly higher yields compared to spring varieties.

In 2019 we expect average yields to be close to trend and slightly below 2017 level. New wheat crop is currently estimated at 83.4 mmt (around 82.8 mmt ex. Crimea).

Russian wheat yields 2009-2018 (mt/ha planted area)

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

SovEcon cut Russian wheat crop to 76 mmt, USDA’s forecast – 85 mmt

SovEcon cut Russia’s wheat crop forecast from 82.3 mmt to 76.4 mmt. The main reason is the substantially smaller winter wheat area reported by Rosstat.

Russian wheat prices up substantially

Prices for Russian wheat rose steadily last week. Export quotes for wheat with protein 12.5% ​​strengthened by 2.5% to $245/t FOB

Russian wheat crop outlook worsens on hot weather

Outlook for Russian wheat crop worsens. SovEcon cut 2021 crop estimate from 84.6 mmt to 82.3 mmt two weeks ago, USDA lowered its estimate by 1 mmt to 85 mmt a week ago.

Russian wheat prices tumbled on bumper crop expectations but starting yields don’t confirm them

Last week, 12.5% wheat prices in Russia’s deep-sea ports tumbled $12 to $234/mt FOB. This was driven by weaker global benchmarks and expectations of the bumper crop.

Russia sold wheat to GASC at best price, is the largest wheat exporter ready to take over Egyptian market?

After a long pause, Russian wheat successfully participated in the GASC tender. The Egyptian firm bought 60K of Russian wheat at $240 FOB (180 days payment) + $27.7 freight.

SovEcon upped Russian wheat crop forecast; first winter barley yields in Russian South are great

Last week, SovEcon upped the new Russian wheat crop forecast by 2.2 mmt to 84.6 mmt. Russia is #1 wheat exporter.