Russian wheat stocks 41% higher than average – SovEcon

Andrey Sizov 09.02.2023

As of January 1, 2023, Russia’s total wheat stocks were estimated at 36.0 million metric tons (MMT) based on data from Rosstat processed by SovEcon. This represents a 41% increase compared to the average of the past five years. The growth in stocks can be attributed to the slow export pace during the first half of the 2022/23 farming season (July-June) and a record-high wheat harvest.

The total wheat stock figures include data on both on-farm and off-farm enterprises but exclude small ones. The key factor behind the increase in stocks was the modest export pace during the first half of the 2022/23 farming season (July-June). Wheat exports in July-December 2022 were estimated at 22.7 million metric tons, lower than the five-year average of 23.0 million metric tons.

The decrease in exports was due to several factors, including a strong ruble, high freight rates, and the impact of export taxes.

In the first half of the 2022/23 farming season (July-June), Russian wheat exports were relatively modest, with total exports estimated at 22.7 MMT in December 2022. The exports were lower than the five-year average of 23.0 MMT, due to several factors, such as the strong ruble, high freight rates, and the impact of export taxes.

The record crop of 2022 also contributed to the stock increase. Rosstat has estimated the harvest at 104.4 MMT, a 37% increase from the previous year.

A record-high wheat crop, was another factor contributing to high stocks number. Russia harvested 104.4 MMT of wheat, as per Rosstat.

SovEcon forecasts a record-high export pace in the coming months, with wheat exports during the first half of 2023 expected to reach 21.3 million metric tons, compared to 10.9 million metric tons during the same period last year. This is expected to put limit price increase in the global global wheat market.