Russian wheat stocks 41% higher than average – SovEcon

The growth in stocks can be attributed to the slow export pace during the first half of the 2022/23 farming season and a record-high wheat harvest.

As of January 1, 2023, Russia’s total wheat stocks were estimated at 36.0 million metric tons (MMT) based on data from Rosstat processed by SovEcon. This represents a 41% increase compared to the average of the past five years. The growth in stocks can be attributed to the slow export pace during the first half of the 2022/23 farming season (July-June) and a record-high wheat harvest.

The total wheat stock figures include data on both on-farm and off-farm enterprises but exclude small ones. The key factor behind the increase in stocks was the modest export pace during the first half of the 2022/23 farming season (July-June). Wheat exports in July-December 2022 were estimated at 22.7 million metric tons, lower than the five-year average of 23.0 million metric tons.

The decrease in exports was due to several factors, including a strong ruble, high freight rates, and the impact of export taxes.

In the first half of the 2022/23 farming season (July-June), Russian wheat exports were relatively modest, with total exports estimated at 22.7 MMT in December 2022. The exports were lower than the five-year average of 23.0 MMT, due to several factors, such as the strong ruble, high freight rates, and the impact of export taxes.

The record crop of 2022 also contributed to the stock increase. Rosstat has estimated the harvest at 104.4 MMT, a 37% increase from the previous year.

A record-high wheat crop, was another factor contributing to high stocks number. Russia harvested 104.4 MMT of wheat, as per Rosstat.

SovEcon forecasts a record-high export pace in the coming months, with wheat exports during the first half of 2023 expected to reach 21.3 million metric tons, compared to 10.9 million metric tons during the same period last year. This is expected to put limit price increase in the global global wheat market.

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Russian domestic wheat sales up in February despite weaker exports

The contradiction may have resulted from higher sales expectations of Russian exporters.

SovEcon expects a significant reduction in wheat crop next season

The expected crop will be lower than last year, but still close to the average for the last five years.

Russia may double March wheat exports — SovEcon

The country is increasing its exports, which dropped in February due to bad weather.

Russian wheat below $300 for the first time since August 2021

Prices are declining amid strong competition with other exporters.

Winter wheat prospects improved in the South of Russia – SovEcon

Recent weather conditions helped to offset precipitation deficit in the region.

February wheat export forecast lowered on stormy weather – SovEcon

Lower export levels may temporarily alleviate pressure on prices in the global market.