Andrey Sizov
09.04.2019
At the beginning of April, Russian wheat prices stabilize after a sharp sell-off in March. As of April 8, prices for 12.5% protein wheat (FOB deep see ports) stood at $226/t.
Prices are supported by slowly rising futures’ prices in Chicago and Paris. Another important driver is relatively stable domestic market where farmers remain slow sellers. Many of them still hope for higher prices and bet on low stocks.
At this point it’s hard to tell whether their hopes will be fulfilled. New wheat crop is quoted around $190-195/mt FOB which implies that the market is very likely to go sharply down from current levels. On another hand, stocks, indeed, are low and stocks/use indicator is one of the lowest for past 10 years which may lead to price spike on uncovered export and internal demand.
