Russian wheat exports may top last year’s record

The projection was revised due to higher crop estimates, a low likelihood of new wheat intervention purchases, and the launch of a new port terminal.

Russian wheat exports in 2023/24 may reach 45.7 million of metric tons (MMT), as per SovEcon estimate. The analysts expect exports to surpass previous year’s record by 3%. The projection was revised upwards due to higher crop estimates, a low likelihood of new Russian government intervention purchases, and the launch of operations at a new deep-water terminal. 

The abundant grain production in the upcoming season will serve as the primary driver behind Russian exports. SovEcon raised the Russian wheat crop estimate to 88.0 MMT in its May crop report, citing favorable weather conditions in the Center and South of Russia.

The probability of new intervention purchases by the Russian government remains low, as indicated by Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev. He stated that the ministry has no plans to expand the intervention fund. In the first quarter of 2022, Patrushev had warned of possible intervention purchases, which eventually amounted to 3.08 MMT.

The launch of a new deep-water terminal in Vysotsk (Leningrad Oblast’) with a capacity of 4 MMT per year could boost Russian wheat exports.

The United States Department of Agriculture estimates Russian wheat exports in 2023/24 at 45.5 MMT.

Active Russian wheat exports may exert pressure on global market prices. 

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