Russian wheat exports lag behind last year’s second month in a row – SovEcon

The sluggish export reflects a slowdown in ongoing sales.

Russian wheat exports for November could range between 3.8 and 4.2 million metric tons (MMT), below the 4.3 MMT recorded a year earlier,  SovEcon forecasts. Monthly exports are to be below last year’s figures for the second month in a row. The decrease reflects a slowdown in ongoing export sales.

Weekly shipments of wheat from Russian ports are decreasing. In the last week of October, 0.76 MMT of wheat was shipped, the lowest amount since the season’s start.

The decline in exports might stem from government attempts to slow down shipment at current market prices. According to the market sources, the Ministry of Agriculture is trying to limit exports as long as the export price remains below the unofficial “price floor” which is currently set at $250/mt. Under such conditions, it’s hard to compete with other suppliers that offer wheat at lower prices.

In October SovEcon lowered wheat export estimate from 49.2 mmt to 48.8 MMT. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts  Russian exports at 50.0 MMT. 

Russian AgMin plans to introduce a 24.0 mmt grain (wheat, corn, and barley) export quota for mid-February – June 2023. SovEcon believes that it’s likely to have a limited impact on shipments during this period.

The decline in Russian exports is not fully reflected in the global market and may support prices in the near future.

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Russian wheat exports in November drop to season low – SovEcon

Wheat sales slowed due to stormy weather in the Black Sea.

Russian wheat crop to drop in 2024 – SovEcon

The yield in 2024 is expected to move lower on expected average 2024 crop conditions and decline in agriculture inputs application.

SovEcon: Russian wheat market bottomed out

After three months of decline, the market is bottoming out amid increasing demand and shrinking supply.

SovEcon: Russian grain market to bottom out in coming weeks

Russian wheat prices may reverse after a three-month decline amid higher demand and lower supply.

SovEcon cut Russian wheat export forecast for the first time this season

The estimate was revised amid sluggish wheat sales and anticipated purchases for the intervention fund.

Russian outstanding wheat sales hit 4-month low – SovEcon

Sales continue to decline amid government recommendations against selling wheat at current global market prices.