Russian wheat exports for November could range between 3.8 and 4.2 million metric tons (MMT), below the 4.3 MMT recorded a year earlier, SovEcon forecasts. Monthly exports are to be below last year’s figures for the second month in a row. The decrease reflects a slowdown in ongoing export sales.
Weekly shipments of wheat from Russian ports are decreasing. In the last week of October, 0.76 MMT of wheat was shipped, the lowest amount since the season’s start.
The decline in exports might stem from government attempts to slow down shipment at current market prices. According to the market sources, the Ministry of Agriculture is trying to limit exports as long as the export price remains below the unofficial “price floor” which is currently set at $250/mt. Under such conditions, it’s hard to compete with other suppliers that offer wheat at lower prices.
In October SovEcon lowered wheat export estimate from 49.2 mmt to 48.8 MMT. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts Russian exports at 50.0 MMT.
Russian AgMin plans to introduce a 24.0 mmt grain (wheat, corn, and barley) export quota for mid-February – June 2023. SovEcon believes that it’s likely to have a limited impact on shipments during this period.
The decline in Russian exports is not fully reflected in the global market and may support prices in the near future.
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