Russian wheat exports in October may range between 3.9 and 4.4 million metric tons (MMT), down from 4.5 MMT a year earlier, SovEcon forecasts. This would mark the first time this season when wheat exports fell below last year’s figures. Sales of Russian wheat abroad may decline amid its decreased competitiveness.
Demand for wheat among Russian exporters is declining. By October 10th, the amount of outstanding sales of Russian wheat had decreased to 2.2 MMT from 4.9 MMT a month prior. This is the lowest level since July 2023.
A reason for the drop in demand by exporters could be the efforts of Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture to prevent wheat sales below the price floor of $270/mt FOB, as reported by both Russian and Western media. During the latest tender from the Egyptian company GASC, Russian wheat was offered at no less than $270/mt, making it less competitive compared to prices from Romanian exporters.
Despite possible sales cuts in October, exports for 2023/24 are still projected to be record-high. SovEcon estimates wheat exports for the season at 48.6 million tons, up from 46.9 million tons the year before.
In the short term, a decline in Russian wheat exports might ease pressure on global prices.
Follow the Black Sea grain market
Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and KazakhstanTry for free