Andrey Sizov
05.12.2023
Russian wheat exports in November are estimated at 3.4 million metric tons (MMT), down from 4.3 MMT a year earlier and an average of 3.5 MMT, SovEcon said in a weekly report. November exports showed the lowest results since the beginning of the season. Wheat sales abroad slowed due to adverse conditions in the Black Sea.
Weekly wheat exports were at 0.4 MMT, the lowest since the beginning of the season.
Exporter activity last week declined sharply due to stormy weather in the Black Sea. Loading ships was impossible, with waves reaching up to 8 meters.
By the end of last week, weather in Novorossiysk, Russia’s key export port, improved. In the current week, forecasters predict mild sea conditions.
Storms in the Black Sea are a seasonal occurrence at this time of year and are unlikely to significantly affect Russian exports in the current marketing year (July-June). However, this serves as a reminder that the global market might be overestimating Russian export prospects this season. In October, SovEcon lowered its wheat export estimate by 0.4 MMT to 48.8 MMT.
