Russian wheat exports in June could triple YoY – SovEcon

Russia continues to actively export wheat amid record-high stocks.

Wheat exports from Russia in June are projected to reach between 2.8 and 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), as per SovEcon estimate. Despite the typical seasonal slowdown in exports, the overall exports volume is expected to triple compared to last year. Russia continues to actively export wheat amid record-high stocks.

According to port data, Russia exported 0.77 MMT of wheat within a week, an increase from 0.65 MMT a week earlier.

High wheat stocks in primary agricultural regions are bolstering export activities. As of the start of May, wheat stocks in agricultural organizations were at 12.0 MMT, double the multi-year average, according to Rosstat.

SovEcon forecasts robust wheat exports in the new season. Exports for the 2023/24 period are projected at 45.7 MMT, marking a 1.3 MMT increase from the current season. However, potential limiting factors can’t be overlooked.

One such limiting factor could be the price floor of $240/t FOB for Russian wheat, which the Russian Agriculture Ministry has introduced, as per Russian media reports. 

Active wheat exports by Russia will continue to exert pressure on the market.

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