Russian wheat exports in July may be record-high

The high export pace is facilitated by favorable market conditions and record-high stock levels.

Exports of Russian wheat in July could total between 3.7 and 4.1 million metric tons (MMT) vs 2.8 MMT on average, SovEcon forecasts. The high export pace is facilitated by favorable market conditions and record-high stock levels.

Exporter activity could be the accelerating factor for Russian wheat exports. As of July 11, outstanding wheat export sales in Russia reached 4.5 MMT, compared to 2.2 MMT on Friday and 1.1 MMT at the start of June.

Demand for Russian wheat remains high due to its growing competitiveness. Russian 12.5% wheat is priced at $232.5 per metric ton, compared to the $252/mt price tag for French wheat at the Matif exchange. 

At the start of June, on-farm wheat stocks in Russia were at 15.6 MMT, compared to 9.7 MMT the previous year, as estimated by Rosstat.

The active export of Russian wheat could exert downward pressure on global wheat prices.

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