Russia is set to export between 4.2 and 4.5 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat in April, which is close to a record high, as per SovEcon estimate. Falling wheat prices in the domestic market and stabilizing export prices are boosting Russian wheat exports.
The record-high figure of 5.0 MMT was achieved in April 2020, when traders rushed to make customs declarations before the introduction of export taxes.
Currently, low prices in the domestic market are driving exports. As of April 6th, the price of Russian third-grade wheat had dropped to RUB 11,475 ($140) per metric ton, the lowest price since November 27th, 2020. These prices are declining due to high wheat stocks and low demand in the domestic market.
On the other hand, export prices are stabilizing. The lowest price at the last tender by Egyptian company GASC was $275/MT. Earlier, news agencies reported that the Russian Ministry of Agriculture did not recommend exporters to sell wheat at a lower price than $275/MT FOB.
While active exports from Russia may deter price growth in the global markets, traders’ reluctance to sell wheat at a lower price than $275/MT may serve as a supporting factor for the markets.
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