Andrey Sizov
02.11.2020
Russian 12.5% wheat prices in deep-sea port were marginally down week on week, by $2 to $253/mt, as per SovEcon. The main driver was a sharp sell-off in Chicago and Paris where wheat lost 2-4%.
Good rains have arrived in HRW regions in the US, Brazil corn and beans regions also received some much-needed precipitation, France was getting some rains again but speeding up the planting campaign which has accelerated substantially.
IGC upped world wheat production by 1 MMT to 764 MMT, but carryout was down from 294 MMT to 291 MMT, stocks in major exporters were down from 65 MMMT to 61 MMT. The global corn crop was down by 4 MMT to 1,156 MMT, carryout down 6 MMT to 279 MMT, major exporters’ carryout down 9 MMT (!) to 70 MMT.
The weather was slightly unfriendly for winter crops in Russia last week. The South, Southern Black Earth and lower Volga, important wheat regions with a substantial moisture deficit, received almost no rains. The rest of the Black Earth and the Volga received good rains bringing 10-20 mm of precipitation. Conditions could improve during this week when models predict 10-30 mm in the South and southern Black Earth, as well as Ukraine’s East which is drier than normal.
Despite recent weather overall conditions for winter wheat around the Black Sea have improved substantially in late September-October on rains bringing some much-needed precipitation and warm temperatures providing additional precious times for plants to develop before the cold comes.
