Russian wheat down $2 week on week, weather improves

Russian 12.5% wheat prices in deep-sea port were marginally down week on week, by $2 to $253/mt, as per SovEcon


Russian 12.5% wheat prices in deep-sea port were marginally down week on week, by $2 to $253/mt, as per SovEcon. The main driver was a sharp sell-off in Chicago and Paris where wheat lost 2-4%.

Good rains have arrived in HRW regions in the US, Brazil corn and beans regions also received some much-needed precipitation, France was getting some rains again but speeding up the planting campaign which has accelerated substantially.

IGC upped world wheat production by 1 MMT to 764 MMT, but carryout was down from 294 MMT to 291 MMT, stocks in major exporters were down from 65 MMMT to 61 MMT. The global corn crop was down by 4 MMT to 1,156 MMT, carryout down 6 MMT to 279 MMT, major exporters’ carryout down 9 MMT (!) to 70 MMT.

The weather was slightly unfriendly for winter crops in Russia last week. The South, Southern Black Earth and lower Volga, important wheat regions with a substantial moisture deficit, received almost no rains. The rest of the Black Earth and the Volga received good rains bringing 10-20 mm of precipitation. Conditions could improve during this week when models predict 10-30 mm in the South and southern Black Earth, as well as Ukraine’s East which is drier than normal. 

Despite recent weather overall conditions for winter wheat around the Black Sea have improved substantially in late September-October on rains bringing some much-needed precipitation and warm temperatures providing additional precious times for plants to develop before the cold comes.

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Wheat higher on Russia-West tensions, is rally overdone?

Wheat is higher 3-5% WOW on Russia-West tensions, the end of the rally could be close

Wheat continues to move lower but Russia-West tensions could change that

Wheat lost 2-4% last week but Russia-West tensions keep rising…

Global wheat market down on good crop in Southern hemisphere

Global wheat market down on good crop in Southern hemisphere; bulls should watch weather and Russia-West talks started today

Wheat higher on weather, export restrictions

Last week, wheat in Chicago rose 5.1%, closing on Thursday at $8.15/bu ($299/mt). French wheat climbed to €290.25/mt ($329/mt; +4.2%). …

SovEcon ups 2022 Russian and Ukrainian wheat crop estimates

SovEcon has upped the 2022 Russian and Ukrainian wheat crop estimates on improved weather and a larger seeded area in Ukraine.

SovEcon ups Russian wheat crop forecast but says that USDA’s estimate could be too optimistic

We have upped the 2021 Russian wheat crop forecast by 0.1 mmt to 75.4 mmt. The revision reflects good crop …