Russian wheat crop outlook worsens on hot weather

Outlook for Russian wheat crop worsens. SovEcon cut 2021 crop estimate from 84.6 mmt to 82.3 mmt two weeks ago, USDA lowered its estimate by 1 mmt to 85 mmt a week ago.

Outlook for Russian wheat crop worsens. SovEcon cut 2021 crop estimate from 84.6 mmt to 82.3 mmt two weeks ago, USDA lowered its estimate by 1 mmt to 85 mmt a week ago.

SovEcon cut the forecast on smaller winter wheat yield estimates.

Current average Russian wheat yield is 3.44 mt/ha from around 12% of the harvested area. It’s +5.5% YOY from the similar area but bear in mind that 2020 was a year with very low starting yields.

The winter wheat yield is below our expectations for two key reasons. First, recent weather has been unfriendly for the new crop. Ample rains in the South at the start of the harvest slowed it down which led to some yield losses. Additionally, current abnormally hot weather leads to the fact that grain is becoming too dry (i.e. 10% moisture compared to around %14-16) which means lower weight and yield.

Second, it looks like that despite very good winter and spring conditions plants haven’t fully recovered in the South after abnormally dry fall. While yields in Krasnodar (#2 Russia’s wheat grower) are close to record-high, yields in Rostov (#1) and Stavropol (#3) are substantially below.

Recent hot and dry weather is also becoming a problem for the spring wheat in the Central Russia and the Volga Valley. The crop in Urals has been already badly damaged. Siberian spring wheat also suffered but recent rains party offset the earlier damage.

The dry forecast for the majority of spring wheat regions and current modest yield numbers could convert into more Russia’s wheat crop downgrades.

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

SovEcon cut Russian wheat crop to 76 mmt, USDA’s forecast – 85 mmt

SovEcon cut Russia’s wheat crop forecast from 82.3 mmt to 76.4 mmt. The main reason is the substantially smaller winter wheat area reported by Rosstat.

Russian wheat prices up substantially

Prices for Russian wheat rose steadily last week. Export quotes for wheat with protein 12.5% ​​strengthened by 2.5% to $245/t FOB

Russian wheat prices tumbled on bumper crop expectations but starting yields don’t confirm them

Last week, 12.5% wheat prices in Russia’s deep-sea ports tumbled $12 to $234/mt FOB. This was driven by weaker global benchmarks and expectations of the bumper crop.

Russia sold wheat to GASC at best price, is the largest wheat exporter ready to take over Egyptian market?

After a long pause, Russian wheat successfully participated in the GASC tender. The Egyptian firm bought 60K of Russian wheat at $240 FOB (180 days payment) + $27.7 freight.

SovEcon upped Russian wheat crop forecast; first winter barley yields in Russian South are great

Last week, SovEcon upped the new Russian wheat crop forecast by 2.2 mmt to 84.6 mmt. Russia is #1 wheat exporter.

Russian wheat is cheaper on record-high on-farm stocks. Will this convert into aggressive exports in 21/22?

Russian wheat tumbled on higher supply from farmers amid approaching new crop and record-high on-farm stocks.