Russian wheat crop is expected to drop to 89.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2024 from 91.5 MMT in 2023, SovEcon said in its Crop Report. The yield in 2024 is expected to move lower on expected average 2024 crop conditions and decline in agriculture inputs application.
The average yield is predicted at 3.04 MT/ha vs. 3.07 MT/ha in the current season. The decline in yield is attributed to the expected average 2024 crop conditions vs. above-average conditions in 2023.
An additional negative yield factor is the expected decrease in agriculture inputs application as farmers will be cutting costs substantially amid declining margins.
The pre-harvest wheat area is expected to decline to 29.5 mln ha from 29.8 mln ha.
Despite a year-on-year decline the 2024 crop could be still well above the 5-year average of 86.4 MMT.
With high 2023/24 carry-out stocks Russia could remain a top world wheat exporter in 2024/25 unless we see some additional government restrictions and/or abnormal weather conditions during the next six months.