Russian on-farm wheat stocks drop below record levels – SovEcon

On-farm wheat stocks declined amid active exports and worsened crop prospects.

As of September 1, on-farm wheat stocks, excluding smaller ones, stood at 28.8 million metric tons (MMT), a 9% drop from last year’s figures, as per SovEcon Report. Since August 2023, stocks remained at post-Soviet era highs. On-farm wheat stocks dipped below record levels amidst active exports and a declined wheat production.

In the Central and Southern regions, on-farm wheat stocks decreased by more than 10% compared to the previous year. However, in the Volga region, they still exceed last year’s record levels by 5%, amid the active harvesting campaign and the shortage of transport for grain transfer.

The primary factor behind the reduction has been the record wheat exports in the new season. SovEcon assesses the 2023/24 exports at 48.9 MMT, 2 MMT higher than the previous year.

The stock volume was also influenced by worsened crop prospects. SovEcon estimates the 2023/24 wheat yield at 91.6 MMT, down from 104.2 MMT the previous year, given the less favorable weather conditions this season.

Despite the decline, on-farm wheat stocks still surpass average levels by 21%.

Even with the reduction, stocks remain high, which will continue to support active Russian exports throughout the season.

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