Russian FOB wheat prices were declining in April. As of the end of the month, 12.5% wheat with the nearest delivery is traded around $218-219/mt. This is 3.5% lower than at the beginning of the month.
Prices are under pressure, demand is weak as large importers are waiting for the new crop which prospects look good currently. Russian July wheat is currently quoted around $185/mt. The top importer, Egypt, in mid-April started to buy wheat from local farmers.
May wheat contract in Chicago in April lost 8% as funds remained heavy sellers.
Bulls could hope for prices’ revival on weather issues in EU where in many regions received fewer rains than the norm in previous months. However, April rains boosted the moisture levels, more rains are expected in May.
Russian farmers remain slow sellers and internal stocks are at historically low levels. However, looks like this is not an issue for traders as for many of them export programs for the current season are almost over.
Without weather anomalies we expect Russian FOB wheat prices to decline further. The new crop could also get cheaper if prospects remain good.
Russian 12.5% prot. wheat, $/mt (FOB deep sea ports)