Russian FOB wheat prices are on the rise

New crop Russian wheat prices are rising following global benchmarks. As of June 5, 12.5% wheat with July delivery is traded around $197/mt (FOB deep sea ports) which is around 9% higher than a month ago.

New crop Russian wheat prices are rising following global benchmarks. As of June 5, 12.5% wheat with July delivery is traded around $197/mt (FOB deep sea ports) which is around 9% higher than a month ago.

So far, the grain market has been supported by US weather problems and record slow planting of corn. As of June 2, only 67% of corn area have been planted compared to 96% on average. This supported wheat and corn prices both in Chicago and Paris as well as in the Black Sea ports.

However, the weather in the Black Sea region is becoming not so favorable for the new crop. We mentioned earlier remaining lack of moisture in parts of Volga and South (Stavropol), in addition to that during the next two weeks and potentially whole June the weather will remain drier than normal in almost all wheat regions of Ukraine in Russia.

This is likely to lead to downgrades of the new wheat crop estimates in Russia and to a lesser extent in Ukraine. Under this scenario we expect the Black Sea market to try to penetrate $200/MT level and also encourage more buying from large importing countries which demand is weaker at the moment compared to last year.

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Russia’s wheat prices reverse, will Black Sea dryness help wheat bulls?

Last week, Russian wheat prices started to ease but dryness in the Black Sea should remain on the markets’ radar

Russia’s wheat prices continue to rise; September exports could set a new record

Last week, 12.5% Russia’s wheat prices in deep-sea ports rose sharply, by $8, to $222/mt. The market was supported by strong demand from importers. Russian wheat starts to lose its competitive edge after the recent rally.

Russian wheat prices below $200 again, big crop is getting bigger?

Last week, Russia’s 12.5% wheat prices in deep-sea ports fell $1 to $199/mt. The market remains under harvest pressure in Russia, weaker ruble also helps.

August WASDE report Black Sea commentary

USDA has just released the new WASDE report, here’s our quick commentary

Russia planted record-high 29.4 mln ha of wheat

SovEcon has analyzed eagerly anticipated official data on the pre-harvest wheat area in Russia released by Russia’s statistical agency Rosstat on July 24.

Will USDA up its Russia’s wheat crop forecast?

USDA cut its Russian wheat crop estimate by 0.5 mmt to 76.5 mmt in the July WASDE report. We expect it to up its fugure later, let us explain why.