Russian FOB wheat prices are on the rise

New crop Russian wheat prices are rising following global benchmarks. As of June 5, 12.5% wheat with July delivery is traded around $197/mt (FOB deep sea ports) which is around 9% higher than a month ago.

New crop Russian wheat prices are rising following global benchmarks. As of June 5, 12.5% wheat with July delivery is traded around $197/mt (FOB deep sea ports) which is around 9% higher than a month ago.

So far, the grain market has been supported by US weather problems and record slow planting of corn. As of June 2, only 67% of corn area have been planted compared to 96% on average. This supported wheat and corn prices both in Chicago and Paris as well as in the Black Sea ports.

However, the weather in the Black Sea region is becoming not so favorable for the new crop. We mentioned earlier remaining lack of moisture in parts of Volga and South (Stavropol), in addition to that during the next two weeks and potentially whole June the weather will remain drier than normal in almost all wheat regions of Ukraine in Russia.

This is likely to lead to downgrades of the new wheat crop estimates in Russia and to a lesser extent in Ukraine. Under this scenario we expect the Black Sea market to try to penetrate $200/MT level and also encourage more buying from large importing countries which demand is weaker at the moment compared to last year.

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Slower Russian wheat exports to benefit the US

MOSCOW, Russia — In 2017/18, Russia exported a record-high 1.5 billion bushels (41 MMT) of wheat and became the largest …

Ukraine’s bumper corn crop to pressure U.S. exports business

Ukraine is expected to harvest a record-high corn crop this year which threatens the US exports to Asia

Russian wheat FOB prices are down following global benchmarks

12.5% wheat prices continue to creep lower, last week they were down $1 again to $193 (FOB deep sea) on …

Russia’s wheat exports declined 14% in 18/19, further decrease is expected in 2019/20

In the 2018/19 (July-June) season Russia exported 35.3 MMT of wheat which is 14% lower than a year ago. In …

USA lost Chinese corn market even before the trade war thanks to Ukraine, fast-growing Black Sea exporter

USA lost Chinese corn market years ago to Ukraine, which exports rose six times in last 10 years. This year the country is expected to harvest another bumper corn crop.

Russian wheat traders face a tough start to the season

Russia’s traders face a tough start of the new export season. Farmers remain slow sellers, the ruble is strong and new crop outlook is deteriorating. July wheat exports are projected at 3.1 MMT, -18% YoY.