SovEcon has raised its 2024 wheat crop forecast by 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) to 91.3 MMT on better weather conditions. In 2023 SovEcon expects Russia to harvest 91.7 MMT.
Weather conditions in most winter wheat regions are favorable for crop development. In the last 30 days, precipitation has reached 120-150% of the norm, improving soil moisture in the South and establishing sufficient snow cover in other areas.
The condition of winter crops is better than average. According to the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, only 4% of winter crops were in poor condition at the end of November, compared to a five-year average of 8%. Conditions likely improved further in recent weeks amid favorable weather.
Weather models for the next two weeks predict ample precipitation and temperatures several degrees above average in most winter crop-growing regions.
The weather has been improving for the new winter crop for several months in a row. At this stage, it looks like a good crop. If there are no big weather anomalies this could start to exert pressure on global wheat prices in the second half of 1Q 2024This week, Russia started intervention procurements of wheat. In the first two days, 33,000 tons were acquired. The Ministry of Agriculture aims to procure up to 2 MMT of grain in total.