Russian farmers are projected to harvest up to 88 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat in 2023, as per SovEcon estimate. While this forecast indicates a decrease compared to the previous year’s record-high crop, it remains 7% above five-year average. The estimate was revised up by 1.2 MMT from the previous month amid favorable weather conditions in the South.
Moisture reserves in the Russia’s South continue to exceed the average levels. Over the past 30 days, the main agricultural regions in the South have received 50-100 mm of precipitation, which is 100-150% of the normal range.
The favorable weather conditions have contributed to steady development of crops in the South, with SovEcon’s analysis based on satellite and meteorological data indicating a higher likelihood of achieving high yields in the southern regions.
According to surveys conducted by SovEcon, farmers generally do not anticipate any shortages of agricultural inputs.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture estimates the wheat crop in Russia at 78.0 MMT, while the USDA provides an estimate of around 81.5 MMT.
Weather forecasts for the coming week predict ample precipitation in the South, which could have a positive short-term impact on the new crop. However, the increased supply may also exert additional pressure on global wheat prices.
Follow the Black Sea grain market
Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and KazakhstanTry for free