Russia: share of wheat in poor condition has fallen unprecedentedly

Share of Russia’s grain crops in poor condition has fallen to 7-9% since November when it was at 22%, a record high level for a decade.

Last week, Russian state agency RosHydroMet (RHM) released crop conditions numbers as of the end of February. Share of grain crops (that’s mainly wheat) in poor conditions has fallen to 7-9% since November when it was at 22%, a record high level for a decade. Favorable winter weather helped plants to recover.

We feel that RHM numbers could be too optimistic and probably don’t reflect ice-crust issues farmers have been experiencing in recent weeks. Interestingly, historically correlation between November’s poor crop share and winter kill is better than the correlation between February’s numbers and winter-kill.

Also, we haven’t seen such dramatic improvements in the past. 

Having said all that, we feel that our winter-kill of around 16% starts to look too pessimistic. We are likely to revise it down by a few p.p., implying a bigger wheat crop by several mln tonnes. We are issuing our crop update this week after finishing the analysis of all data, maps and farmers’ survey.

Our most recent estimate of 2021 Russia’s wheat crop is 76.2 MMT compared to 85.9 MMT (85.3 MMT ex. Crimea) in 2020.

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Russian wheat export quota failed to help bulls

Russian 9 mmt wheat quota looks non-disruptive to exports, says SovEcon

Russian wheat higher again, how far are we from the season’s peak?

Russian wheat prices hit a new high but we think that season’s peak could be close

Russian wheat exports on the rise

Russian wheat exports have been growing in recent weeks. According to customs, as of the week ended November 17, 0.82 …

Ukraine to harvest a record-high corn crop in 2021, wheat production is expected to decline next year

We have revised Ukraine’s crop numbers for 2021 (bearish corn) and have issued the first 2022 wheat crop forecast (bullish!).

Black Sea wheat prices hit $325 and SRW – $8, is the rally over?

The market hit fresh highs with support of stronger global benchmarks, big tenders, and sluggish exports. But how sustainable is this rally?