The wheat export forecast for the 2023/24 season has been raised by 0.9 million metric tons (MMT) to 48.1 MMT, according to SovEcon’s Export and S&D report. In the previous year, Russia exported 46.9 MMT of wheat. The forecast was revised due to unprecedented export pace at the beginning of the season.
The export pace has accelerated due to the remarkable activity of exporters for this time of year. As of August 9, outstanding sales of Russian wheat were pegged at 4.9 MMT vs 0.7 MMT a year earlier.
Exporter activity may be supported by significant profit margins for traders and the expansion of export infrastructure within Russia. On the global front, Russian exports may benefit from reduced competition from Ukraine and a surge in imports by North African countries.
A potential hindrance to Russian wheat exports may be competition from Eastern European nations, like Romania. During an Egyptian GASC company tender on August 2, Romanian wheat suppliers quoted the lowest FOB price for wheat at $249/mt, undercutting Russia’s best bid by $1.
SovEcon estimates the production of wheat in 2023/24 at 87.1 MMT vs 104.2 MMT a year earlier.
Active Russian grain export will exert pressure at the global prices.