Russia can produce another bumper wheat crop in 2019

Russian wheat looks good in the beginning of April. It was another mild winter, favorable for the new crop with enough snow in majority of regions and no temperatures low enough to threaten new crop yields.

Russian wheat looks good at the beginning of April. It was another mild winter, favorable for the new crop with enough snow in the majority of regions and no temperatures low enough to threaten new crop’s yields.

At this point, the data on winter wheat area is not available and it will be released only in a few months. (Beat that in mind when you hear someone talking about knowing the actual area under wheat, it can’t be true). We currently estimate the area under winter wheat (after winterkill) at 15.5 mln ha compared to 15.3 mln ha in 2018.

Spring wheat area is estimated to remain close to 2018 when it was 12 mln ha. On one hand, wheat and grains generally provided good returns for farmers compared to sunflower (#2 cash crop for Russia) which may support the area. On another – there is a long trend of spring wheat area getting smaller as it’s being substituted by winter wheat in some regions. In Siberia, spring wheat is losing hectares to rapeseed (canola) and flax which are being exported to China.

Looking at current conditions across Russia and probably increased wheat area we estimate the new wheat crop at 83.4 mmt, up from 72.1 mmt in 2018 (or 71.7 mmt ex Crimea, as it’s being reported by USDA). This crop could be the second highest after 2017 when Russia harvested 86 mmt (85.2 mmt ex Crimea).

Winter wheat and spring wheat area 2010-2019, mln ha

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

SovEcon cut Russian wheat crop to 76 mmt, USDA’s forecast – 85 mmt

SovEcon cut Russia’s wheat crop forecast from 82.3 mmt to 76.4 mmt. The main reason is the substantially smaller winter wheat area reported by Rosstat.

Russian wheat prices up substantially

Prices for Russian wheat rose steadily last week. Export quotes for wheat with protein 12.5% ​​strengthened by 2.5% to $245/t FOB

Russian wheat crop outlook worsens on hot weather

Outlook for Russian wheat crop worsens. SovEcon cut 2021 crop estimate from 84.6 mmt to 82.3 mmt two weeks ago, USDA lowered its estimate by 1 mmt to 85 mmt a week ago.

Russian wheat prices tumbled on bumper crop expectations but starting yields don’t confirm them

Last week, 12.5% wheat prices in Russia’s deep-sea ports tumbled $12 to $234/mt FOB. This was driven by weaker global benchmarks and expectations of the bumper crop.

Russia sold wheat to GASC at best price, is the largest wheat exporter ready to take over Egyptian market?

After a long pause, Russian wheat successfully participated in the GASC tender. The Egyptian firm bought 60K of Russian wheat at $240 FOB (180 days payment) + $27.7 freight.

SovEcon upped Russian wheat crop forecast; first winter barley yields in Russian South are great

Last week, SovEcon upped the new Russian wheat crop forecast by 2.2 mmt to 84.6 mmt. Russia is #1 wheat exporter.