Russia can produce another bumper wheat crop in 2019

Russian wheat looks good in the beginning of April. It was another mild winter, favorable for the new crop with enough snow in majority of regions and no temperatures low enough to threaten new crop yields.

Russian wheat looks good at the beginning of April. It was another mild winter, favorable for the new crop with enough snow in the majority of regions and no temperatures low enough to threaten new crop’s yields.

At this point, the data on winter wheat area is not available and it will be released only in a few months. (Beat that in mind when you hear someone talking about knowing the actual area under wheat, it can’t be true). We currently estimate the area under winter wheat (after winterkill) at 15.5 mln ha compared to 15.3 mln ha in 2018.

Spring wheat area is estimated to remain close to 2018 when it was 12 mln ha. On one hand, wheat and grains generally provided good returns for farmers compared to sunflower (#2 cash crop for Russia) which may support the area. On another – there is a long trend of spring wheat area getting smaller as it’s being substituted by winter wheat in some regions. In Siberia, spring wheat is losing hectares to rapeseed (canola) and flax which are being exported to China.

Looking at current conditions across Russia and probably increased wheat area we estimate the new wheat crop at 83.4 mmt, up from 72.1 mmt in 2018 (or 71.7 mmt ex Crimea, as it’s being reported by USDA). This crop could be the second highest after 2017 when Russia harvested 86 mmt (85.2 mmt ex Crimea).

Winter wheat and spring wheat area 2010-2019, mln ha

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Russian on-farm wheat stocks are double the average

Increase in stocks can be attributed to the record-high wheat crop and relatively sluggish exports at the beginning of the export season.

Russian 2023 wheat crop estimate upped to 88 MMT

The estimate was revised up amid favorable weather conditions in the South.

Weekly Russian wheat exports decline to February low

The exports declined amid the sluggish demand at the end of the export season.

Russian wheat is being seeded at a record-high pace

Wheat is seeded at a rapid pace amid favorable weather conditions and warm temperatures at the beginning of the sowing campaign.

Russian wheat stocks are 79% higher than average – SovEcon

The stocks have significantly surpassed the average due to the record-high wheat crop and relatively sluggish exports.

Russia’s outstanding wheat sales hit multi-month low

The sales are declining amid the lower competitiveness of the Russian wheat.