February wheat export forecast lowered on stormy weather – SovEcon

Lower export levels may temporarily alleviate pressure on prices in the global market.

Andrey Sizov 24.02.2023

SovEcon has lowered its estimate of Russian wheat exports by 0.3 MMT to 3.4 MMT due to the weather conditions. The exports were slowed by the current Black Sea storms. Slower exports in the mid-winter may temporarily alleviate pressure of Russian wheat on the wheat prices in the global market.

By mid-February, Russian weekly wheat exports decreased to 0.7 MMT from 0.9 MMT at the beginning of the month, mainly due to unfavorable weather conditions in the significant Russian port of Novorossiysk. A storm warning was issued again in Novorossiysk on February 20 due to bad weather.

As of February 22, weather conditions affected outstanding wheat sales by Russian traders, reducing them to 2.3 MMT from a record-high of 2.9 MMT two weeks earlier. However, the number remains high for this time of year.

The volume of exports in February still exceeds the five-year average for February of 2.5 MMT and aligns with our yearly wheat export forecast of 44.1 MMT.

The slower exports may temporarily alleviate pressure on the global wheat markets. Nevertheless, the relief will not last long as exports are expected to remain high in H1 2023 amid a record-high wheat crop of 104.4 MMT.