2019 wheat production in Russia: outlook remains optimistic on ample rains and fast planting

The weather remains favorable for the new Russian wheat crop. In recent weeks almost all key regions received 100-150% of normal rains boosting the moisture reserves during the important period of the season.

The weather remains favorable for the new Russian wheat crop. In recent weeks almost all key regions received 100-150% of normal rains boosting the moisture reserves during the important period of the season.

At the same time rains were not excessive. As of May, 14 4.4 mln ha of spring wheat were planted which is 91% more than a year ago and close to average.

There were some issues with winter wheat in Volga Valley region (#3 wheat producer) but according both to local farmers and satellite images crop conditions are improving.

With more rains expected during the rest of May we remain optimistic about the new Russian wheat crop. In early May wheat production in Russia was estimated at 83.4 mmt (inc. Crimea which is expected to harvest 0.7-0.8 mmt).

The latest WASDE estimate of 77 mmt (ex. Crimea) looks extremely conservative. The yield forecast of 2.91 mt/ha (2.72 mt/ha in 2018 which was a relatively bad weather year; 3.11 mt/ha in 2017 which was a good year) doesn’t seem to reflect good current and past weather conditions.

Russia: spring wheat planted area as of mid-May, 1,000 ha

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Russian wheat exports in November drop to season low – SovEcon

Wheat sales slowed due to stormy weather in the Black Sea.

Russian wheat crop to drop in 2024 – SovEcon

The yield in 2024 is expected to move lower on expected average 2024 crop conditions and decline in agriculture inputs application.

SovEcon: Russian wheat market bottomed out

After three months of decline, the market is bottoming out amid increasing demand and shrinking supply.

SovEcon: Russian grain market to bottom out in coming weeks

Russian wheat prices may reverse after a three-month decline amid higher demand and lower supply.

SovEcon cut Russian wheat export forecast for the first time this season

The estimate was revised amid sluggish wheat sales and anticipated purchases for the intervention fund.