Andrey Sizov
09.10.2024
Russian 12.5% wheat prices rose by $3 to $222-224/MT FOB last week, marking the highest level since late June, SovEcon said in a report. This week, according to traders, prices reached $230/MT. The uptick in prices was supported by an increase in futures prices and a historically high export pace.
Since the start of the new season, Russian 12.5% wheat prices have been stable around $220/MT FOB, peaking at $221/MT.
French wheat prices on the Matif exchange climbed last Friday to €229/MT ($254/MT) from €221/MT ($247/MT) the previous week, driven by vigorous short-covering activities.
Following the short-covering on the French exchange, open interest in the December wheat contract fell from 236,000 contracts to 193,000 by the end of September.
Russian wheat continues to be exported at a record-high pace. In the first two months of the new season, 9.5 MMT were shipped, closely following last year’s record-high numbers.
Major buyers of Russian wheat remain actively engaged in the market. This week, Saudi Arabia’s GFSA agency secured 307,000 MT of wheat, while Algeria’s OAIC acquired between 510,000 and 570,000 MT, according to traders. Additionally, news agencies report that Egypt’s GASC procured 3.1 MMT of wheat for delivery between November and April.
SovEcon forecasts wheat exports at 47.6 MMT this season, down from 52.4 MMT last year.
The probability that Russian wheat export prices have reached their bottom seems to be high.
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