SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – October 10, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Wednesday, U.S. wheat futures rose. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.99/bu ($220/mt), up 0.7% from Tuesday. The December HRW wheat contract in Kansas increased to $6.09/bu ($224/mt), up 0.8%. The December Euronext wheat contract closed at €228.75/mt ($254/mt), down 0.4%. The December U.S. corn contract fell to $4.21/bu ($166/mt), down 0.3%.

The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina lowered its wheat production forecast to 19.5 million mt, 1.0 million mt below its previous estimate. The forecast was revised due to ongoing dry weather in the country.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported export sales of 126,000 mt of corn to unknown destinations.

Turkey will reduce the import tax on corn to 5% for a total of 1 million mt of grain imports by the end of the year, the country’s Ministry of Trade announced. After reaching the agreed volume, the tax will return to 130%.

Algeria could purchase up to 3 million mt of Russian wheat this season, representatives of Russia’s trade mission in Algeria reported.

Algeria banned French suppliers from participating in Tuesday’s wheat tender, Reuters reported, citing sources.

On Friday, the USDA will release the WASDE report. Market analysts expect U.S. corn stocks to decline by 3.0 million mt from September to 49.3 million mt, while global corn stocks are forecast to drop by 0.9 million mt to 308.7 million mt. U.S. wheat stocks are expected to decrease slightly by 0.2 million mt to 22.3 million mt, with global wheat stocks falling by 0.3 million mt to 265.0 million mt.

Russian 12.5% wheat prices rose by $3 to $222-224/MT FOB last week, marking the highest level since late June, SovEcon said in a report. This week, according to traders, prices reached $230/MT. The uptick in prices was supported by an increase in futures prices and a historically high export pace.

More Articles for You

Russia wheat exports in July lowest since 2017/18

Russian wheat exports totaled an estimated 1.6 mmt in July, the lowest for the month since 2017/18, according to a …

Russia grain export forecast cut as Azov navigation remains closed

SovEcon has cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports to 44.6 mmt from 46.5 mmt as navigation in the …

Russia wheat crop forecast cut to 88.3 mmt

SovEcon has cut its 2026 Russian wheat crop forecast to 88.3 mmt from 88.9 mmt, according to the company’s latest …

New-season Russian wheat export forecast raised on larger stocks

Larger carry-in stocks are expected to support Russian wheat exports in 2026/27 despite a smaller crop and muted early-season demand.

Russia starts new harvest with wheat yields up 29% y/y

Early harvest data from southern Russia show wheat and barley yields above last year after favorable weather.

Russian Port Wheat Prices Fall to Lowest Since Early February

Port bids fell as the ruble strengthened, however negative margins should support Russian and Black Sea wheat export prices.