Weekly round-up of Black Sea grain market – August 22

Andrey Sizov 22.08.2022

This is what has happened around the Black Sea since the previous Monday:

The grain deal still holds. 30+ vessels with Ukrainian 0.7 mmt foodstuff left Odesa terminals, mostly corn
Quality should be a problem for crops stored in inland elevators…just a reminder you can easily store grain for 1+ year
The pace has been stable so far….around 0.2-0.3 mmt a week -> 1+ mmt a month
Ukraine plans to increase it to 3-4 mmt a month…not sure if it will be easy. Russia could have its own plans
Ukraine acknowledged that two Mykolaiv terminals won’t be added to the grain deal
Where’s Razoni, the first mysterious vessel with 26K of UA corn? It went to Lebanon, then switched to Tukey where she unloaded only 1.5K, then allegedly went to Egypt, but has been out of the radar for 10 days…Newswires said she was spotted in Syria
Ukraine celebrates Independence Day on August 24, the authorities warn about Russian heavy shelling around that date
Russia halted passenger navigation from some Black Sea ports, inc. Novorossiysk
Zelensky-Erdogan meeting was big news thanks to media saying that the Turkish president would bring a negotiation proposal from Putin. Wheat was hit badly, CBOT lost 7% in two days
Zelensky: “No negotiations until Russian troops leave the country”….wheat rose 5% from last week’s lows
Zaporizhie nuclear power station situation should be watched
Ukraine exported 1.3 MMT of grain in August (-58% YOY) inc 0.8 MMT of corn (+300%)….monthly number should be above 2MMT for the first since the start of the war
Russian wheat export remains flat…only 0.9 mmt shipped last week, unchanged WOW. The price remains too high vs Matif to attract buyers. GASC is silent…for how long?
SovEcon July 22/23 Russain wheat export estimate – 42.9 mmt (USDA – 42.0 mm), getting there will be not easy
The Russian market starts to feel the harvest pressure amid huge crop arrival…for the first time since 2017 farmers start to report a lack of storage…prices tumble but that’s mostly feed/almost feed wheat, 11-12+% pro holds relatively well
Ukraine’s Independence day, slow Russian exports….don’t think that being short wheat is a good idea at the moment
Based on sizov.report on the Black Sea