WEEKLY ROUND-UP OF BLACK SEA EVENTS – SEPTEMBER 19

Ukraine and Russian grain exports speed up; wheat sell-off on Monday could be a buying opportunity

This is what happened around the Black Sea since the previous Monday:

* Grain corridor remains the biggest news by far. The deal still holds, almost 4.0 mmt has been done, 1.1 mmt last week vs 0.8 mmt a week ago
 
* Putin’s comments about the corridor in Uzbekistan after meeting with Erdogan were relatively peaceful…contrary to what the market has been expecting earlier
 
* Question – can Putin actually terminate / not extend the deal? I don’t have an answer but it seems that the Kremlin started to get really annoyed with the deal (but it’s still there)
 
* Discussion about the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline should be watched…Russia wants its resumption with the help of the UN. Kiev says no for now for political reasons. Taking into account that RU could be selling ammonia to the US firm at the border this still can work. The story probably is not over. If there is an ammonia deal that should support the “grain deal” as well
 
* Ukrainian grain exports could be close to 4 mmt in September with #corn accounting for around a half and wheat for 40%. 22/23 exports lag 45% YOY
 
* Russian wheat exports are picking up after it has regained its competitive edge..should see 1+mmt this week for the first time in many months
 
* September volume is estimated at 4.3 mmt, not bad but still below the average 4.6 mmt
 
* Second half of the season (Jan-Jun) could be more important for RU export program than it typically is….it needs to ship its enormous crop while its export program has been lagging so far
 
* Russian crop is just getting bigger as spring wheat regions with a few exceptions also report great yields…Almost 100 mmt of wheat harvested (in bunker weight!)
 
* Huge sell-off in wheat on Monday on no news mostly…we have been bullish and now we are bullish short-term as well

* Based on sizov.report on the Black Sea grain markets

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Russian on-farm wheat stocks are double the average

Increase in stocks can be attributed to the record-high wheat crop and relatively sluggish exports at the beginning of the export season.

Russian 2023 wheat crop estimate upped to 88 MMT

The estimate was revised up amid favorable weather conditions in the South.

Weekly Russian wheat exports decline to February low

The exports declined amid the sluggish demand at the end of the export season.

Russian wheat is being seeded at a record-high pace

Wheat is seeded at a rapid pace amid favorable weather conditions and warm temperatures at the beginning of the sowing campaign.

Russian wheat stocks are 79% higher than average – SovEcon

The stocks have significantly surpassed the average due to the record-high wheat crop and relatively sluggish exports.

Russia’s outstanding wheat sales hit multi-month low

The sales are declining amid the lower competitiveness of the Russian wheat.