Winter weather in the Black Sea remains typical for recent years – too dry and too warm. Winter-kill risk because of low temperatures is close to zero but overall the weather has not been friendly for the 2021 wheat crop. After the dry autumn, moisture reserves were abnormally low in many parts of the region, and such winter is not helping to offset the deficit. Plants in southern Russia and Ukraine will need moisture in around two months after the start of the vegetation.
Things could improve slightly in the next two weeks as models predict substantial rains / snow in key wheat regions around the Black Sea at last. This is not enough to fully offset the earlier dryness but lowers the risk of the poor wheat crop, first of all in Russia’s South.
Follow the Black Sea grain market
Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and KazakhstanTry for free