SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – July 17, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Tuesday, grain prices were stable or rising. The September SRW wheat contract closed at $5.31/bush ($195/mt; -0.3% compared to Monday). The September Euronext wheat contract rose to €214.25/mt ($234/mt; +0.4%). The September U.S. corn contract closed at $3.96/bush ($156/mt; +1.3%).

The yield of Ukrainian corn could decrease by 30-35% compared to last season due to abnormally hot and dry weather, reported the Ukrainian Grain Union (UGA). The UGA estimates the grain and oilseed harvest at 77 mmt, down from 82 mmt last year.

The Egyptian company GASC purchased 720 tmt of Russian wheat at a tender for $241-243/mt C&F. An additional 50 tmt will be supplied from Bulgaria at $238/mt C&F.

Indian farmers have accelerated the planting of corn and other late crops following above-average rainfall in the first half of July.

SovEcon forecasts July wheat exports to drop to 2.8 mmt from 4.5 mmt a year earlier and an average of 3.0 MMT. Wheat exports are anticipated to fall below average at the start of the new season amid declining exporter margins.

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