SovEcon ups 2022 Russian and Ukrainian wheat crop estimates

Andrey Sizov 21.12.2021

We have upped the 2022 Russian and Ukrainian wheat crop estimates on improved weather and a larger seeded area in Ukraine.

Russian wheat crop has been revised from 80.7 mmt to 81.3 mmt on good crop conditions across the country. Crop conditions in all key regions are close to average or better than average. Conditions in the South, key winter wheat growing region, are substantially better than average thanks to ample precipitation during the fall. SovEcon’s crop conditions are assessed using satellite and meteo data and farmers’ surveys.

Good conditions were confirmed also by Russia’s state weather service Hydrometeocenter. The service issued an annual report with an assessment of winter crops conditions. The share of winter crops in poor condition was only 3%. A year earlier, that number was 22%, and the average for the previous five years is 8.4%.

Good crop conditions are expected to fully offset the decline in seeded area, which for all winter crops dropped by 0.9 mln ha to 18.4 mln ha, as per harvesting and planting reports.

In 2021 Russia is forecasted to grow 75.4 mmt of wheat, as per SovEcon’s estimate.

Ukrainian 2022-wheat crop estimate was upped by 2.0 mmt to 29.1 mmt on a larger area and better conditions.

Thanks to very late planting amid warm weather Ukrainian farmers have increased the area under winter wheat which is to hit a new record-high of 7.0 mln ha compared to 6.9 mln ha in 2020.

Crop conditions have improved in November on some limited but timely precipitation, partly offsetting earlier dryness.

In 2021 Ukraine is forecasted to produce 31.9 mmt of wheat, as per SovEcon’s estimate.

Total Russian and Ukrainian 2022-wheat crop is estimated at 110.4 mmt vs 107.3 mmt in 2021. Russia is the #1 world wheat exporter and Ukraine is #3.