SovEcon ups 2022 Russian and Ukrainian wheat crop estimates

SovEcon has upped the 2022 Russian and Ukrainian wheat crop estimates on improved weather and a larger seeded area in Ukraine.

We have upped the 2022 Russian and Ukrainian wheat crop estimates on improved weather and a larger seeded area in Ukraine.

Russian wheat crop has been revised from 80.7 mmt to 81.3 mmt on good crop conditions across the country. Crop conditions in all key regions are close to average or better than average. Conditions in the South, key winter wheat growing region, are substantially better than average thanks to ample precipitation during the fall. SovEcon’s crop conditions are assessed using satellite and meteo data and farmers’ surveys.

Good conditions were confirmed also by Russia’s state weather service Hydrometeocenter. The service issued an annual report with an assessment of winter crops conditions. The share of winter crops in poor condition was only 3%. A year earlier, that number was 22%, and the average for the previous five years is 8.4%.

Good crop conditions are expected to fully offset the decline in seeded area, which for all winter crops dropped by 0.9 mln ha to 18.4 mln ha, as per harvesting and planting reports.

In 2021 Russia is forecasted to grow 75.4 mmt of wheat, as per SovEcon’s estimate.

Ukrainian 2022-wheat crop estimate was upped by 2.0 mmt to 29.1 mmt on a larger area and better conditions.

Thanks to very late planting amid warm weather Ukrainian farmers have increased the area under winter wheat which is to hit a new record-high of 7.0 mln ha compared to 6.9 mln ha in 2020.

Crop conditions have improved in November on some limited but timely precipitation, partly offsetting earlier dryness.

In 2021 Ukraine is forecasted to produce 31.9 mmt of wheat, as per SovEcon’s estimate.

Total Russian and Ukrainian 2022-wheat crop is estimated at 110.4 mmt vs 107.3 mmt in 2021. Russia is the #1 world wheat exporter and Ukraine is #3.

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Wheat higher on Russia-West tensions, is rally overdone?

Wheat is higher 3-5% WOW on Russia-West tensions, the end of the rally could be close

Wheat continues to move lower but Russia-West tensions could change that

Wheat lost 2-4% last week but Russia-West tensions keep rising…

Global wheat market down on good crop in Southern hemisphere

Global wheat market down on good crop in Southern hemisphere; bulls should watch weather and Russia-West talks started today

Wheat higher on weather, export restrictions

Last week, wheat in Chicago rose 5.1%, closing on Thursday at $8.15/bu ($299/mt). French wheat climbed to €290.25/mt ($329/mt; +4.2%). …

SovEcon ups Russian wheat crop forecast but says that USDA’s estimate could be too optimistic

We have upped the 2021 Russian wheat crop forecast by 0.1 mmt to 75.4 mmt. The revision reflects good crop …

Russian wheat export quota failed to help bulls

Russian 9 mmt wheat quota looks non-disruptive to exports, says SovEcon