Andrey Sizov
06.11.2024
As of October 1, total Russian wheat stocks (on-farm and off-farm, excluding small companies) amounted to 38.7 million metric tons (MMT), down 14% year-over-year (YoY), SovEcon said in a report. Last quarter, stocks were at 20.3 MMT, up 21% YoY. Wheat stocks have sharply declined compared to last quarter due to low production figures of Russian wheat and active exports.
The lag from last year’s record-high stock volumes has sharply increased due to decline in production. As of October 1, 2024, Russia had harvested 79 MMT of wheat compared to 89 MMT a year earlier.
Meanwhile, Russian wheat exports are proceeding at a record-high pace. According to SovEcon, in the first three months of the season, a record-high 15.0 MMT of wheat was shipped from Russia, compared to 14.6 MMT the previous year.
Last quarter, production figures were higher than the previous year due to an early start of the harvesting campaign. By early July 2024, nearly 7 MMT of wheat had been harvested in the country compared to 200 thousand metric tons in 2023.
On-farm wheat stocks amounted to 24.4 MMT, down 17% compared to last year. Off-farm wheat stocks were at 14.3 MMT, down 8% from last year. Relatively high off-farm stocks are likely linked to the active grain purchasing by the consumers, fearing future price increases due to low supply.
Russia eliminated its record-high stocks, which is likely to be an important factor contributing to a substantial slowdown in exports.
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