Andrey Sizov
12.03.2025
Grain prices declined on Tuesday. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.57/bu ($204/mt; -1.0% compared to Monday). The May HRW wheat contract in Kansas fell to $5.72/bu ($210/mt; -1.1%). The May Euronext wheat contract settled at €221.25/mt ($242/mt; -1.1%). The May U.S. corn contract declined to $4.70/bu ($185/mt; -0.4%).
The USDA released its March WASDE report. The agency raised its estimate for U.S. wheat ending stocks to 22.3 mmt (+0.7 mmt from last month; +0.6 mmt compared to market expectations). The corn ending stocks forecast remained unchanged at 39.1 mmt (+0.6 mmt compared to market expectations).
Global wheat stocks were estimated at 260.1 mmt (+2.5 mmt from last month and market expectations). The revision was made following increased production estimates for Australia and Argentina. The USDA projected global corn stocks at 288.9 mmt (-1.4 mmt from February; -1.0 mmt compared to market expectations).
The USDA lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 0.5 mmt to 45.0 mmt.
Ukraine agreed to a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire during negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
On the evening of March 11, a ballistic missile strike hit the port of Odesa. A Barbados-flagged vessel loading wheat for export to Algeria was damaged. The attack also caused damage to port infrastructure, including grain storage facilities and led to deaths of several people.
SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in March at 1.4 to 1.8 million metric tons (MMT), down from 4.8 MMT last year and 3.3 MMT on a five-year average. Exports are expected to decrease by two thirds YoY due to negative exporter margins and low competitiveness of Russian wheat.
