Andrey Sizov
04.02.2025
Domestic prices for Russian wheat (with 12.5% protein) have risen to 15,525 rub/mt ($158/mt) from 14,725 rub/mt ($145/mt) since the start of the year, SovEcon said. Wheat prices have strengthened due to high demand from exporters.
The demand from exporters for wheat on the domestic market has noticeably revived over the last week supported by higher global market prices. The price of wheat on the French Matif exchange on January 29 rose by €2.5 ($3) week-over-week to €233 ($242). Against this backdrop, quotes for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein rose by $1.5 to $237–$239/mt FOB by January 29.
The most significant domestic price increases were seen in the South, the country’s key export region. Prices for Class 4 wheat in the South increased by 900 rub over the month to 16,350 rub/mt ($167/mt) compared to a 250 ruble increase in the Center.
In recent months, exporters have been actively purchasing wheat. In December, 4.8 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat were bought from Russian agricultural producers, compared to 4.3 MMT in November. The entire increase compared to last month was achieved through higher sales in the South.
Meanwhile, exports have been relatively sluggish. SovEcon estimates wheat exports in January at 2.2 MMT, down from 3.6 MMT a year ago and an average of 3.1 MMT over the past five years. Active purchases amid relatively sluggish exports may indicate that exporters are accumulating grain in anticipation of price increases or a revival in shipments.
Amid active sales and a relatively low production volume, stocks in southern Russia in December fell to 3.7 MMT from 7.0 MMT a year earlier.
We believe the global market is significantly overestimating Russia’s export potential this season. SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat exports for 2024/25 at 42.8 MMT compared to the USDA’s estimate of 46.0 MMT.
Rising domestic prices and a strengthening ruble could stabilize or further increase prices for Russian wheat, thereby supporting the global market.
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