Andrey Sizov
04.03.2025
On Monday, U.S. grain futures declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.48/bu ($201/mt), down 1.4% from Friday. The May HRW wheat contract in Kansas City fell to $5.62/bu ($206/mt), down 2.1%. The May Euronext wheat contract closed at €225.50/mt ($236/mt), down 1.5%. The May U.S. corn contract declined to $4.56/bu ($180/mt), down 2.8%.
Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon: Grain markets tumbled on reports that China may impose tariff and non-tariff restrictions on U.S. agricultural imports. The sell-off in corn was particularly sharp, as funds continued unwinding long positions. Even mounting geopolitical risks—fading Black Sea ceasefire prospects after a heated White House exchange and renewed attacks on merchant vessels in Odesa—weren’t enough to lift wheat, as bearish sentiment dominated the ag complex.
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the implementation of 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods starting March 4. Tariffs on Chinese goods will be doubled to 20%.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory 25% tariffs on U.S. imports. China’s Ministry of Finance announced tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, including 15% tariffs on corn and 10% tariffs on soybeans.
The USDA reported that exporters sold 114,000 metric tons (mt) of corn to Mexico.
ABARES raised its estimate for Australia’s 2024/25 wheat crop by 2.2 million metric tons (mmt) to 34.1 mmt. This is 31% higher than in 2023/24 and 28% above the ten-year average. For the next season, ABARES projects wheat production at 30.5 mmt, below the current season’s level but still above the long-term average.
As of March 2, Brazil’s second corn crop planting was 70% complete, up from 54% a week earlier but down from 74% last year, according to Conab.
