SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – October 25, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Thursday, U.S. grain futures rose. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.81/bu ($214/mt; +0.5% compared to Wednesday). The December HRW wheat contract in Kansas rose to $5.87/bu ($216/mt; +0.3%). The December Euronext wheat contract fell to €221.50/mt ($245/mt; -1.0%). The December U.S. corn contract closed at $4.21/bu ($166/mt; +0.6%).

For the week ending October 17, U.S. exporters sold 4.18 million mt of corn, marking the fifth-largest weekly shipment in the past 20 years, according to USDA data.

The USDA reported that exporters sold 228,000 mt of corn to Japan and 165,000 mt to unknown destinations.

As of October 21, 21% of France’s soft wheat fields had been sown, compared to 50% in 2023 and a five-year average of 47%, FranceAgriMer reported.

As of October 24, Ukrainian farmers harvested 45.1 million mt of grain (43.4 million mt a year earlier) from 9.8 million ha (8.9 million ha), with an average yield of 4.62 mt/ha (4.90 mt/ha). Of this, 15.4 million mt of corn was harvested from 2.7 million ha, with an average yield of 5.72 mt/ha.

Rains in Argentina will continue into November, meteorologist Germán Heinzenknecht told Reuters. The first rains following a prolonged dry period fell at the end of October, improving the outlook for wheat and corn crops.

EU countries are discussing increasing tariffs on agricultural and food products, as well as fertilizers, from Russia, Bloomberg reported, citing sources.

SovEcon has released its first forecast for the 2025 Russian wheat crop, estimating production at 80.1 million metric tons (MMT), down from 81.5 MMT the previous year and below the average of 88.1 MMT. Wheat crop could decline to the lowest level in four years amid adverse weather in major winter wheat growing regions.

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