Andrey Sizov
02.10.2024
On Tuesday, grain futures continued to rise. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.99/bu ($220/mt; +2.6% compared to Monday). The December HRW wheat contract in Kansas City rose to $5.98/bu ($220/mt; +2.5%). The December Euronext wheat contract closed at €227.50/mt ($252/mt; +2.4%). The December U.S. corn contract increased to $4.29/bu ($169/mt; +1.0%).
Andrey Sizov: “Agricultural markets were supported by the explosive surge in oil prices amid Iran’s mass missile strike on Israel. An additional factor for the wheat market is the persistent dry weather in Russia. Risks for the new crop of winter wheat are increasing daily, and weather models still do not forecast significant rains in the coming weeks.”
A state of emergency was declared in the Voronezh region due to drought, according to a decree signed by the governor on September 30.
EU soft wheat exports have totaled 6.14 million tons since the start of the 2024/25 season (-26% compared to the previous year), according to the European Commission. Romania has been the largest exporter so far this season, shipping 2.04 million tons. The European Commission notes that the export data from France and Italy for 2024 are not yet complete.
Brokerage firm StoneX increased its forecast for U.S. corn production to 386.6 million tons from 384.2 million tons a month earlier.
The USDA reported the sale of 195,000 tons of wheat to unknown destinations.
Morocco may increase wheat imports in the current season to 7.5 million tons from 6.2 million tons last year, according to a report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Imports are expected to rise due to severe drought, which has led to crop failure this season.
