Andrey Sizov
10.03.2025
Wheat prices declined on Friday. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.51/bu ($203/mt; -0.5% compared to Thursday). The May HRW wheat contract in Kansas fell to $5.65/bu ($207/mt; -0.2%). The May Euronext wheat contract settled at €221.75/mt ($240/mt; -0.4%). The May U.S. corn contract rose to $4.69/bu ($185/mt; +1.1%).
For the week ending March 4, the net long position of funds in corn on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by 118k contracts to 220k, according to the COT report. The net short position of funds in wheat increased by 16k contracts to 35k over the same period.
The share of Argentine corn crop in poor condition declined to 23% as of March 5, down from 29% a week earlier. While the current figure remains above last year’s 13%, it is below the five-year average of 27%. Crop conditions have improved significantly due to abundant rainfall in the country’s agricultural regions.
On March 11, the U.S. Department of Agriculture will release the March revision of the WASDE report. Market participants expect U.S. wheat ending stocks to rise by 0.1 mmt from the previous month to 21.7 mmt, while global stocks are projected to remain at 257.6 mmt. Analysts forecast a decline in U.S. corn ending stocks by 0.6 mmt to 38.5 mmt, with global corn stocks expected to fall by 0.4 mmt to 289.9 mmt.
In February 2025, the FAO cereal price index rose by 0.8 points from the previous month to 112.6 points. The overall FAO food price index increased by 2.0 points to 127.1 over the same period.
The FAO raised its forecast for global grain stocks at the end of the 2024/25 season by 2.7 mmt to 869.3 mmt. The wheat stock estimate was increased by 4.4 mmt to 312.8 mmt.
