Andrey Sizov
26.07.2024
On Thursday, wheat futures declined. The September SRW wheat contract closed at $5.38/bush ($198/mt; -1.7% compared to Wednesday). The September Euronext wheat contract fell to €219.75/mt ($238/mt; -1.2%). The September U.S. corn contract rose to $4.06/bush ($160/mt; +0.6%).
Following a crop tour in the U.S., the yield of U.S. spring wheat is estimated at 53.8 bush/acre (3.62 mt/ha) compared to 47.1 bush/acre (3.17 mt/ha) last year. This is the highest crop tour estimate since at least 1992. The yield of hard red wheat (HRW) is estimated at 51.4 bush/acre (3.46 mt/ha) compared to 39.6 bush/acre (2.66 mt/ha) last year.
U.S. corn sales totaled 0.75 mt against market expectations of 0.10-0.60 mt, according to USDA data.
Wheat harvesting in France has accelerated. As of July 22, farmers had harvested 41% of the planted areas compared to 14% the previous week. However, the pace still lags behind last year’s (76%) and the average (67%).
The share of French wheat crops in good and excellent condition fell to 50% from 52% the previous week and 78% last year.
Wheat planting in Argentina is 98.5% complete, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The share of crops in normal and excellent condition is estimated at 94% compared to 89% last year.
The European MARS agency has lowered its yield forecast for several grain crops. The corn yield forecast was reduced to 7.24 mt/ha (from 7.55 mt/ha last month and 7.35 mt/ha on a five-year average), and the barley yield was lowered to 5.09 mt/ha (from 5.14 mt/ha last month and 4.93 mt/ha on average).
SovEcon has raised its grain production forecast for July by 3.1 million metric tons (MMT) to 130.5 MMT. The estimate was revised due to improved prospects for winter and spring crops.
