Andrey Sizov
15.07.2024
On Friday, wheat prices plummeted. The September SRW wheat contract closed at $5.51/bushel ($202/ton; -3.6% compared to Thursday). The September Euronext wheat contract fell to €220.00/ton ($240/ton; -1.5%). The September U.S. corn contract rose to $4.02/bushel ($158/ton; +0.4%).
Wheat prices declined following the release of the WASDE report. In the new report, the USDA estimated U.S. wheat ending stocks at 23.3 million metric tons (mmt), up from 20.6 mmt in June and an average market estimate of 21.4 mmt. Global wheat stocks were estimated at 257.2 mmt, up from 252.3 mmt in June and 252.2 mmt according to market expectations. The revision in wheat stocks was due to improved outlooks for the U.S. wheat crop, now estimated at 54.7 mmt compared to 51.0 mmt in June.
USDA analysts also increased their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks to 47.7 mmt from 51.4 mmt in June and 52.0 mmt as per market estimates. The global corn stock estimate was 311.6 mmt, matching market expectations and exceeding the June forecast by 0.8 mmt.
Ukrainian grain yields are expected to be 5-7% lower than last year, stated Acting Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky. The decrease in yield is attributed to drought in some regions of the country.
As of July 12, Ukrainian grain exports reached 1.5 mmt compared to 0.9 mmt a year earlier, reported the Ministry of Agrarian Policy.
