SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – January 13, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Friday, corn futures rose. March corn futures in the U.S. climbed to $4.70 per bushel ($185/mt), up 3.2% from Thursday. March SRW wheat futures closed at $5.31 per bushel ($195/mt), down 0.6%. March HRW wheat futures in Kansas City settled at $5.52 per bushel ($203/mt), up 0.3%. March Euronext wheat futures rose to €233.00 per metric ton ($239/mt), up 1.6%.

Corn prices were supported by the WASDE report. The USDA lowered its forecast for U.S. corn ending stocks for 2024/25 to 39.1 million mt, down 5.0 million mt from the December estimate and 3.4 million mt below market expectations. Global corn stocks are projected at 293.3 million mt, down 3.1 million mt month-over-month and 1.5 million mt below market estimates. U.S. wheat ending stocks were slightly increased to 21.7 million mt (+0.1 million mt month-over-month; in line with market expectations), while global wheat stocks are now forecast at 258.8 million mt (+0.9 million mt month-over-month; +1.0 million mt above market expectations).

The Biden administration is expected to release a new funding model for sustainable fuel next week, which may exclude ethanol, Reuters reported, citing sources. Under the new framework, foreign ethanol producers would no longer qualify for tax credits designed for clean fuel producers. This is likely to impact the volume of used cooking oil imported into the U.S. Amid these restrictions, soybean oil prices have risen 15% week-over-week.

Afghanistan became the largest importer of Russian flour last year, doubling its purchases, according to the agricultural agency Agroexport.

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