Andrey Sizov
03.02.2025
Grain futures declined on Friday. The March SRW wheat contract closed at $5.59 per bushel ($206/mt; -1.2% compared to Thursday). The March HRW wheat contract in Kansas fell to $5.79 per bushel ($213/mt; -1.5%). The March Euronext wheat contract closed at €232.00/mt ($240/mt; -1.1%). The March U.S. corn contract dropped to $4.82 per bushel ($190/mt; -1.7%).
U.S. President Donald Trump announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on goods from China, effective February 4. Canada has already announced retaliatory tariffs, while Mexican authorities are still deliberating their response.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters raised their estimates for Australia’s wheat production from 29.0-34.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 32.0-35.5 mmt. In December, the Australian government estimated the harvest at 31.9 mmt.
On Friday, the Arbitration Court of the Rostov Region upheld a claim to confiscate 100% of the assets of the grain trader Rodnye Polya in favor of the Russian Federation, Interfax reported, citing sources.
The Food Corporation of India (FCI) plans to increase its wheat storage capacity from 2.8 mmt to 9.0 mmt.
Kazakhstan’s 2024 grain and pulse harvest totaled 25.2 mmt (up from 17.1 mmt the previous year) on 16.6 million hectares (16.7 million hectares) with an average yield of 1.52 mt/ha (1.03 mt/ha), according to official statistics. The wheat harvest amounted to 18.6 mmt, compared to 12.1 mmt last year.
Twenty-one regions in Russia are expected to face a locust invasion in 2025 due to a mild winter, Izvestia reported, citing a report from the federal Rosselkhozcenter under the Ministry of Agriculture. Last year, 14 regions encountered locust outbreaks.
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2024/25 season to 42.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.7 MMT a month earlier. This marks a sharp decline from 52.4 MMT last season and is also below the three-year average of 44.2 MMT. The revision reflects the slow shipment pace and challenging export conditions.
