Andrey Sizov
24.04.2024
SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in April at a record-high 4.6 million metric tons (MMT), up from 4.4 MMT last year and 2.9 MMT on average. Russia is exporting wheat at a record pace due to its high competitiveness.
Competitive edge of Russian wheat remains strong. Last week, Russian wheat was priced at $211/MT FOB, while French wheat was at $220/MT. Two months ago, both Russian and French wheat were offered at the same price, $227/MT FOB.
Over the last week, the competitive edge of Russian wheat could have increased further due to a sudden rise in European market prices. On Monday, the May contract for French MATIF wheat closed at $230/MT, 6% higher than a week earlier.
The resumption of navigation in Russian rivers, including the key Volga-Don Canal, which reopened on April 1, could also have contributed to the increase in export pace.
Issues with obtaining operational documentation for TD “RIF,” one of Russia’s largest exporters, have not had a significant impact on Russian wheat export campaign.
Despite the current record-high export pace, SovEcon expects a notable slowdown in the coming months as large importers are likely to switch to new crop purchases.
