Andrey Sizov
30.01.2025
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2024/25 season to 42.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.7 MMT a month earlier. This marks a sharp decline from 52.4 MMT last season and is also below the three-year average of 44.2 MMT. The revision reflects the slow shipment pace and challenging export conditions.
The slow pace of shipments has weighed on the export outlook. January exports are estimated at 2.1 MMT, which is 1.0 MMT below the average and the lowest level since January 2022, when 2.0 MMT was exported.
Russian wheat export operations remain barely profitable or in negative territory, limiting exporters’ ability to accelerate shipments in the near term. Without a significant improvement in margins, no substantial pickup in wheat exports is expected in the short term.
A quota of 10.6 MMT will come into effect in mid-February and will last until the end of the season. While an increase in the quota is possible, especially if export prices rise, it is not currently our base case scenario.
In January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 1 MMT to 46 MMT. This remains an extremely high figure, and we expect it to decrease over time, likely accompanied by increased export estimates for the U.S. and Argentina.
A decline in Russian wheat export activity is expected to provide support to the global wheat market, tightening supply at a time when global balance sheets remain fragile.
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