Andrey Sizov
27.08.2024
Russian wheat prices (12.5% protein) have surged by 1,025 rub to 13,925 rub/mt ($154/mt) since the end of July. This marks the sharpest rise since May 2024. The increase in quotes is driven by rising demand and a weakening ruble.
Demand from exporters for Russian wheat remains relatively high. From the end of July to mid August, prices for Russian wheat in ports increased by 650 rub to 16,400 rub ($181).
Domestic market demand for Russian wheat also continues to be strong, primarily due to livestock farms and feed compounders.
The supply of Russian wheat remains constrained. Producers are holding back sales, anticipating more favorable prices.
The weakening of the ruble also supports the quotes. Last Friday, the exchange rate was 91 rub per dollar, compared to 86 rub at the end of July.
In the last week, port prices have stabilized, remaining at 16,400 rub (unchanged WoW). This could indicate a slight decrease in demand from exporters.
Export quotes for Russian wheat since the beginning of July have remained around $220/mt (FOB). During the same period, Matif wheat prices dropped by $26 to $205/mt.
Given the gradual decline in demand and a weakening global market, the potential for further growth in ruble terms appears limited.
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