Russia’s wheat exports declined 14% in 18/19, further decrease is expected in 2019/20

In the 2018/19 (July-June) season Russia exported 35.3 MMT of wheat which is 14% lower than a year ago. In contrast to the previous season, this one did not bring any significant surprises. Since the autumn of 2018 when the harvest volume was more or less clear, we have been predicting exports of around 35 MMT. In the 2017/18 season, total exports were substantially higher than the initial estimates.

During the season, the export dynamics developed close to the usual pattern – high pace in the first half and a significant deceleration in the second half.

Russia’s monthly wheat exports, MMT

As we have repeatedly predicted earlier at the beginning of the season, the state did not interfere in export regulation, at least noticeably. However, it should be reminded once again that traders have frequently mentioned attempts to introduce unofficial quotas for large exporters as well as problems with obtaining phytosanitary certificates.

Export figures may still be slightly adjusted ex post facto, mainly due to supplies to the Eurasian Economic Commission countries but we do not expect any fundamental changes.

The top three largest buyers of Russian wheat in the season remained unchanged compared to 2017/18. On the first place is Egypt with 7.4 mln t (-15% YoY), on the second – Turkey with 5.2 mln t (+11%), on the third – Bangladesh with 2 mln t (-12%). Among the large buyers, supplies to Vietnam, which purchased 1.2 mln t (-46%), Indonesia (1 mln t, -32%), Nigeria (1.4 mln t, -18%), Sudan (1.2 mln t, -41%) declined significantly. The Philippines markedly increased its imports from Russia (0.9 mln, by 2.5 times).

In 2019/20 we expect wheat exports to decline further. Our current estimate is 31.4 MMT (Russian AgMin: 35 MMT, USDA: 34 MMT). Exports will be affected by lower supply because of smaller carry-in stocks and high competition with EU and Ukraine which are harvesting bumper crops. 

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Russian wheat hits a new high on China’s imports and poor outlook for corn crop in the Black Sea

Wheat climbes higher supported by corn which is driven by Chinese imports and poor Black Sea crop

The Black Sea 20/21 round-up: Good wheat crop and exports despite a disappointing start

The start of the 2020 wheat harvest campaign around the Black Sea was a disaster. Both Russia and Ukraine were reporting yields around 30% lower than a year ago after a prolonged dryness period in spring which damaged crops in the region substantially.

Russia’s wheat prices reverse, will Black Sea dryness help wheat bulls?

Last week, Russian wheat prices started to ease but dryness in the Black Sea should remain on the markets’ radar

Russia’s wheat prices continue to rise; September exports could set a new record

Last week, 12.5% Russia’s wheat prices in deep-sea ports rose sharply, by $8, to $222/mt. The market was supported by strong demand from importers. Russian wheat starts to lose its competitive edge after the recent rally.

Russian wheat prices below $200 again, big crop is getting bigger?

Last week, Russia’s 12.5% wheat prices in deep-sea ports fell $1 to $199/mt. The market remains under harvest pressure in Russia, weaker ruble also helps.

August WASDE report Black Sea commentary

USDA has just released the new WASDE report, here’s our quick commentary