Andrey Sizov
19.04.2024
SovEcon has lowered its 2024 Russian wheat crop estimate by 1.0 million metric tons (MMT) to 93.0 MMT, marking the first reduction this season. Forecast was revised amid deteriorating crop conditions in the South.
The South of Russia is the country’s largest wheat producer, accounting for more than 40% of the total crop.
The winter wheat production estimate was lowered by 1.0 MMT to 68.2 MMT, while the spring wheat estimate remains at 25.7 MMT.
The main reason for the forecast revision is the dry weather conditions in the South of Russia. Over the last 30 days, moisture levels in the region have been at 60-80% of the norm, with minimum temperatures 2-4°C above average.
Due to the lack of precipitation, a moisture deficit is forming in the topsoil, and crop conditions have worsened. SovEcon estimates the crop conditions as average/slightly above average in Rostov and Krasnodar (Russia’s top two wheat producers) and slightly below average in Stavropol (No. 3).
Over the next few weeks, major weather models forecast 60-90% of normal precipitation in the South, which, combined with high temperatures (2-4°C above normal), is unlikely to significantly improve plant moisture availability in the region.
If the South does not receive significant rainfall in the next 2-4 weeks, the region could face a crop failure. However, this may be partly offset by relatively high yields in the Volga Region and the Center, where crop conditions still look better than average.
Market concerns about the weather in southern Russia could lend additional support to the global wheat market. In recent weeks, export prices for Russian wheat have strengthened to $211/MT FOB from a mid-March low of $199/MT FOB.
