Andrey Sizov
24.04.2019
Russian wheat exports continue to slow down. In March 2019 the country exported 1.9 mmt of wheat (-16% MoM; -52% YoY). Accumulated exports from the beginning of the season (July/June) reached 31.2 mmt (-1% YoY).
Exports are slowing down due to lower supply, relatively low stocks and the strong ruble. Grain export in the current agricultural year is generally close to the normal seasonal pattern: high volumes in the first half of the season and slowing down in the second one. Last year, this seasonality did not work: amid the record high supply Russia actively exported grains during almost all 12 months.
Egypt and Turkey remain the main buyers of Russian wheat. According to March results, Turkey is at the top again with 544 ths t while Egypt went down to the second position with its 456 ths t. Just like a month earlier, these countries account for about a half of Russian exports. The third place is occupied by Bangladesh with its 136 ths t.
According to customs data, as of April 18, accumulated exports of wheat in the current season amounted to 32.0 mln t (-3% YoY). We expect exports to slow down further as the trade activity weakens. April exports are estimated at 1.7 mmt, according to customs.
Estimate of the exports in the current season lowered to 34.9 mmt from 35.1 mmt. USDA’s estimate of 37 mmt looks unrealistically high.
Russian wheat exports in 2016/17-2018/19 (mmt)
